Mercedes-Benz production declined in 2025, with car output down 8.5% to 1.8 million units and van output down 10.6% to 353,710 units. Rather than pressing ahead with its planned shift to all-electric production, the company has adapted its main plants for multi-fuel flexibility, allowing it to keep building internal combustion engine models for longer.

Automotive World forecasts output will fall a further 11% in 2026, to slightly more than 1.6 million units, largely due to continually tough market conditions for non-domestic OEMs in China. This could mark the nadir before a partial recovery in 2027 through to 2030, with Mercedes’ factories in Kecskemet, Hungary and Tuscaloosa, Alabama driving most of the gains.

Even so, average output for 2027-2030 is expected to remain 7.7% below pre-2025 levels. The forecast assumes recent and imminent product launches in China are enough to stabilise the company’s decline there, although there is undoubtedly a risk that even a limited improvement will prove too optimistic.

For further insights on Mercedes’ performance and production, read Automotive World’s latest OEM Outlook.