Automotive World’s latest light vehicle production forecast has revised anticipated global output to 76.5 million units, down 3.1% from prior estimates. Practically all of the 2.5 million-unit shortfall originated from one country: China.

Chinese production is now expected to top out at 18.7 million units, a 17% reduction. This more bearish conclusion reflects growing pessimism among China’s automakers and industry associations about market saturation; more cars are currently being produced than local consumers can absorb. Brands particularly likely to be impacted include BYD, Chery and Geely.

Production across the rest of the world is anticipated to offset this decline partially: India has been revised up 18%, Mexico 6.1%, the US 4.4%, and Europe 0.8%. However, the sheer scale of China’s contribution still drags the overall figure negative.

To learn more about what brands are struggling and succeeding, download the July update to Automotive World’s light vehicle sales forecast.